Comparative analysis of the dynamics and structure of HIV infection incidence at the present stage in the Russian Federation and Kyrgyzstan

Introduction. HIV infection remains a priority public health problem in the Russian Federation and the Kyrgyz Republic. According to the WHO and UNAIDS classification, both countries are categorized as having a concentrated epidemic type. Over the past two decades, there has been a transformation of the epidemic process from the predominance of parenteral transmission routes to the dominance of sexual transmission mechanisms.

Objective. Comprehensive comparative epidemiological analysis of the dynamics and structure of HIV infection incidence in the Russian Federation and the Kyrgyz Republic for the period 2014–2024.

Materials and methods. The study was based on analysis of official statistics and data from medical surveillance forms. Descriptive epidemiological methods were applied: analysis of morbidity (incidence) and morbidity burden (prevalence), spatial distribution, age structure, transmission routes, and antiretroviral therapy coverage.

Results. In Russia, morbidity decreased by 38 % (from 58.4 to 36.08 per 100,000 population) while morbidity burden increased by 68 % (from 494.6 to 831.44 per 100,000). In Kyrgyzstan, morbidity increased by 63 % (from 8.4 to 13.7 per 100,000) and morbidity burden increased by 119 % (from 85.6 to 188.1 per 100,000). Heterosexual transmission became the dominant route: in Russia – 80.9 %, in Kyrgyzstan – 56.6 %. Morbidity was concentrated in working-age groups. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage in Russia was 89.8 % among registered patients, in Kyrgyzstan – 70.3 % with viral suppression achieved in 90 %.

Conclusions. Russia demonstrates epidemic stabilization, while Kyrgyzstan shows continued expansion. The transformation of transmission routes requires reorientation of prevention strategies toward the general population. There is a need to strengthen patient retention in the surveillance system and develop interstate cooperation.

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