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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">medalphabet</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Медицинский алфавит</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Medical alphabet</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">2078-5631</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2949-2807</issn><publisher><publisher-name>ООО «Альфмед»</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.33667/2078-5631-2026-6-33-38</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">medalphabet-4955</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Статьи</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Моделирование для выявления пациентов с риском сочетания бронхиальной астмы и хронической обструктивной болезни легких</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Modeling to identify patients with risk of bronchial asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease overlap</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8175-5867</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Смирнова</surname><given-names>А. Ю.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Smirnova</surname><given-names>A. Yu.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Смирнова Анна Юрьевна – к.м.н., доцент кафедры пропедевтики внутренних болезней</p><p>г. Ульяновск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Smirnova Anna Yuryevna – PhD in medicine, Associate Professor of the Propaedeutics of Internal Diseases Department </p><p>Ulyanovsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">arximed4@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8009-0557</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Гноевых</surname><given-names>В. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Gnoevykh</surname><given-names>V. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Гноевых Валерий Викторович – д.м.н., профессор, зав. кафедрой пропедевтики внутренних болезней</p><p>г. Ульяновск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Gnoevykh Valery Viktorovich – MD, Professor, Head of the Propaedeutics of Internal Diseases Department </p><p>Ulyanovsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">valvik@inbox.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1781-6968</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Чернова</surname><given-names>Н. Г.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Chernova</surname><given-names>N. G.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Чернова Надежда Георгиевна – старший преподаватель кафедры пропедевтики внутренних болезней</p><p>г. Ульяновск</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Chernova Nadezhda Georgievna – Senior Lecturer at the Propaedeutics of Internal Diseases Department </p><p>Ulyanovsk</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">chernovanadezhda@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru">ФГБОУ ВО «Ульяновский государственный университет»<country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en">Ulyanovsk State University<country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>13</day><month>04</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>0</volume><issue>6</issue><issue-title>Современная функциональная диагностика (1)</issue-title><fpage>33</fpage><lpage>38</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Смирнова А.Ю., Гноевых В.В., Чернова Н.Г., 2026</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Смирнова А.Ю., Гноевых В.В., Чернова Н.Г.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Smirnova A.Y., Gnoevykh V.V., Chernova N.G.</copyright-holder><license license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.med-alphabet.com/jour/article/view/4955">https://www.med-alphabet.com/jour/article/view/4955</self-uri><abstract><p>Согласно российским клиническим рекомендациям по ХОБЛ (2024), у 101 больного бронхиальной астмой (БА) проведена диагностика возможного сочетания БА и ХОБЛ, которое выявили у 32,7% больных. Затем были сопоставлены основные клинико-функциональные характеристики у больных БА без сочетания с ХОБЛ (группа БА) и у пациентов с сочетанием обсуждаемых заболеваний (группа БА+ХОБЛ). На фоне повышенного индекса курения (ИК) в группе БА+ХОБЛ чаще отмечалось тяжелое течение БА с более выраженной бронхиальной обструкцией и сниженным уровнем оксигенации крови (SpO2 ). По результатам теста с 6-минутной ходьбой (6MWT) в группе БА+ХОБЛ было выявлено более выраженное нарушение физической работоспособности на фоне значительного снижения основных характеристик оксигенации крови до, во время и после 6MWT в сочетании с большими уровнями десатурационно-дистанционного отношения (DDR) и потребности в дополнительном потоке О2 во время физической нагрузки (O2-GAP индекс). В потенциальную регрессионную модель были включены: возраст, фактор наличия тяжелого течения БА, фактор отсутствия полного контроля БА по GINA, величина DDR, динамика диспноэ в результате 6MWT, средняя оксигенация крови после 6MWT, ОФВ1 , ФЖЕЛ и ИК. В итоговую модель для уточненного определения вероятности сочетания БА с ХОБЛ вошли три независимых фактора: DDR, ОФВ1 и ИК. Разработанная бинарная логистическая регрессионная модель имеет характеристики: AUC=0,88; 95% ДИ: 0,80–0,97, p&lt;0,001. Чувствительность модели – 75,0%, специфичность – 90,6. Сочетание БА и ХОБЛ в выборке обследованных больных БА было высоко вероятным при значении диагностического порога модели ≥0,481.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>According to Russian clinical COPD guidelines (2024), 101 bronchial asthma (BA) patients were diagnosed with a possible BA and COPD overlap (32.7%). The main clinical and functional characteristics were compared in patients with BA without (BA group) and with COPD overlap (BA+COPD group). Against the background of a higher rate of pack-years indicator, severe asthma with more pronounced bronchial obstruction and reduced SpO2 levels was more common in BA+COPD group. According to the results of 6MWT in BA+COPD group, we revealed a more pronounced impairment of physical performance against the background of a more significant decrease in all main characteristics of blood oxygenation before, during and after 6MWT combined with high levels of desaturation-distance ratio (DDR) and the need for additional O2 flow during physical activity (O2-GAP index). The potential diagnostic regression model included: age, the factor of the severe asthma presence, the factor of the lack of complete control of bronchial asthma according to GINA, the DDR value, the dynamics of dyspnea as a result of 6MWT, average blood oxygenation after 6MWT, FEV1 , FVC and pack-years indicator. Three independent factors were included in the final model to accurately determine the probability of a combination of bronchial asthma and COPD: DDR, FEV1 , and pack-years indicator. The developed model has characteristics: AUC=0,88 (p&lt;0.001), the sensitivity is 75.0%, specificity is 90.6%. The BA and COPD overlap was highly probable with the diagnostic threshold of the model ≥0.481.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>бронхиальная астма и хроническая обструктивная болезнь легких</kwd><kwd>бинарное логистическое моделирование</kwd><kwd>независимые факторы сочетания бронхиальной астмы и хронической обструктивной болезни легких</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Bronchial asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease</kwd><kwd>binary logistic modeling</kwd><kwd>independent factors of bronchial asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease overlap</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Карпин В.А. Очерки теоретической медицины. Бронхообструктивный синдром: диалектика бронхиальной астмы и хронической обструктивной болезни легких. В.А. Карпин, О.И. Шувалова. Психология. Спорт. Здравоохранение. 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